Broiler manufacturing totaled 4,052 million kilos in January, an increase of two.0 % from
January 2023. That is due to every 0.6 % elevated widespread weights and to January 2024
having one other slaughter day, which better than offset a lower per day slaughter cost
compared with January 2023. With the publication of the Poultry Slaughter Annual Summary in February, complete broiler manufacturing for 2023 was revised barely and now totals 46,387 million kilos. This revised decide is 4 million kilos above closing month’s estimate and an increase of decrease than 1 % from the 2022 complete.
Weekly preliminary slaughter data signifies that widespread weights remained elevated all through
February. Based totally on this and highly effective slaughter in January, projected first-quarter manufacturing is adjusted up by 50 million kilos to 11,600 million kilos. Based totally on the expectation of an rising margin between manufacturing costs and wholesale prices, projected fourth-quarter manufacturing may be adjusted up by 50 million kilos to 11,750 million kilos. In complete, projected 2024 broiler manufacturing is adjusted up by 100 million kilos to 46,875 million kilos. If realized, this is ready to be an increase of about 1 % from 2023.
Broiler Exports Decreased, Imports Elevated
Broiler exports totaled 608.7 million kilos in January, a decrease of three.4 % from January 2023. Shipments to Mexico, accounting for 22.8 % of exports, had been similar to closing January at 138.9 million kilos. Yr-over-year will improve in shipments to Taiwan (+22.7 million kilos), the United Arab Emirates (+12.6 million kilos), the Philippines (+10.1 million kilos), Georgia (+4.0 million kilos), and totally different markets weren’t large enough to offset decreases in shipments to China (-23.4 million kilos), Angola (-14.6 million kilos), Turkey (-8.5 million kilos), Colombia (-7.8 million kilos), Haiti (-6.5 million kilos), and South Africa (-6.5 million kilos). Projected exports for 2024 are adjusted down by 50 million kilos to 7,165 million kilos. This shows U.S. prices that are a lot much less aggressive inside the worldwide market concurrent with rising output from Brazil. On the same time, China’s demand for U.S. hen continues to say no. China accounted for declining shares of U.S. broiler exports inside the latter part of closing yr and accounted for just one.4 % of exports in January. On expectations of lower product sales to quite a lot of key markets by means of the yr, the forecast for 2024 exports is decreased to 7,165 million kilos. Projected broiler exports would account for 15.3 % of projected 2024 manufacturing.
Broiler imports totaled 15.2 million kilos in January, 3.6 million kilos over the equivalent month closing yr. Imports from Chile totaled 11.2 million kilos, or 73.8 % of broiler imports. The ability of imports helps the current 2024 broiler import projection of 215 million kilos, an increase of 84 million kilos over the 2023 complete.
Broiler Worth Projections Unchanged
The February widespread nationwide composite wholesale broiler worth was 126.18 cents per pound. That’s down 2.1 cents from January, nevertheless up 4.5 cents from closing February. Whereas newest prices are beneath the peak prices of the last few years, they proceed to be above the 5-year widespread. Reflecting newest worth data, projected quarterly widespread prices for 2024 are unchanged, with an annual widespread projection of 128 cents per pound. 
Desk Egg Manufacturing Adjusted Down in 2024
Desk egg manufacturing totaled 665.1 million dozen in January, up 2.6 % from January 2023. The January flock averaged 310.4 million birds, solely barely above closing yr, and 19.3 million birds beneath the 5-year widespread for January. The year-over-year improve in egg manufacturing is principally attributed to a median every single day lay cost of 82.9 eggs per 100 layers, a 2.5-percent improve from closing January. Desk egg layer inventory was 309.3 million birds on the first of February, down barely every month over month and yr over yr. Based totally on the decline in flock dimension, projected first-quarter desk egg manufacturing is adjusted down by 10 million dozen to 1,940 million dozen. The outlying quarterly projections are unchanged at 1,975 million dozen inside the second quarter, 2,015 million dozen inside the third, and a pair of,060 million dozen inside the fourth quarter. In complete, the 2024 desk egg projection is 7,990 million dozen, an increase of 1.6 % yr over yr.
Info revisions from NASS resulted in adjusted egg manufacturing totals once more to 2021. Desk egg manufacturing in 2021 was revised barely elevated to eight,136 million dozen. For 2022, desk egg manufacturing was revised up by 44 million dozen to 7,825 million dozen, whereas hatching egg manufacturing was revised down barely to 1,291 million dozen. For 2023, desk egg manufacturing was revised 23 million dozen lower to 7,864 million dozen, whereas hatching egg manufacturing was revised up 21 million kilos to 1,279 million dozen.
The most recent case of Extraordinarily Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in enterprise desk egg
layers was reported on January third in Merced County, California. After a sequence of circumstances in
California, there was a notable affect on the nationwide inventory of cage-free eggs and a
subsequent improve inside the weekly benchmark California egg worth. The cage-free egg worth
peaked at 559 cents per dozen inside the week ending February ninth. Cage-free inventories have since recovered, reaching 317.6 thousand circumstances on February twenty sixth, up 63.6 thousand circumstances from the low degree of 254 thousand circumstances on January twenty second. The California benchmark worth for the week ending March 1st was 361 cents per dozen. In February, the nationwide cage-free desk egg laying flock totaled 124.9 million hens, up 2.6 million from the January complete. Whereas the cage- free flock did decline in dimension all through the newest wave of HPAI circumstances, it has elevated since a yr prior to now, with this February’s complete virtually 10 million birds better than the equivalent month closing yr. In February, cage-free layers made up about 40.4 % of the nationwide flock.
Egg Worth Projection Adjusted Down in First-Quarter 2024
The every single day New York wholesale worth for large eggs averaged 312.6 cents per dozen in February. Day-after-day prices elevated steeply in late January and early February as inventories of huge desk eggs declined. Day-after-day prices held common at 332 cents per dozen February eighth by means of the 20 th sooner than falling as soon as extra as inventories recovered. Large-egg inventory totaled 723.2 thousand circumstances on February twenty sixth. Day-after-day New York prices for that week averaged 256.6 cents per dozen. Based totally on newest worth data, the first-quarter projected widespread worth was adjusted proper all the way down to 250 cents per dozen, whereas the outlying quarterly projections are unchanged at 160 cents per dozen inside the second quarter, 145 cents per dozen inside the third quarter, and 165 cents per dozen inside the fourth quarter. The projected annual widespread worth for 2024 is 180.0 cents per dozen, down 12.4 cents from the 2023 widespread.
Projected 2024 Egg and Egg Product Exports Unchanged
Blended egg and egg product exports in January totaled 17.9 million shell-egg equal dozen, an increase of two.3 million from January 2023. Egg product exports elevated by 3.4
million dozen equal compared with the equivalent month a yr earlier, whereas shell-egg exports decreased by 1.0 million dozen. Projected egg and egg product exports for 2024 are unchanged from closing month at 241 million shell-egg equal dozen. That’s down 9.4 million from 2023, nevertheless up by 14.5 million dozen from the 2022 complete. Projected exports would account for 2.6 % of projected desk and hatching egg manufacturing in 2024.
Projected Turkey Manufacturing Adjusted Down for 2024
Full turkey manufacturing in 2023 was revised up by 2 million kilos to 5,457 million kilos, up 4.5 % from 2022. Turkey manufacturing in January 2024 totaled 435.2 million kilos, down 2.3 % yr over yr. A 2.0 % improve inside the month-to-month widespread reside weight was not enough to offset a 3.2 % decrease in complete slaughter. But yet one more slaughter day inside the month was insufficient to offset a 7.6 % decline in per day slaughter. On a per day basis, manufacturing was down 6.7 % from closing January. Month-to-month turkey poult placements had been down yr over yr for the third consecutive month. Lower placements in November, December, and January level out fewer birds for slaughter in March, April, and May. Based totally on January manufacturing and updated placement data, projected turkey manufacturing is adjusted down 10 million kilos to 1,300 million kilos inside the first quarter and down 15 million kilos to 1,310 million kilos inside the second quarter. The third- and fourth-quarter projections are unchanged at 1,360 and 1,400 million kilos. This results in an annual projection of 5,370 million kilos, a decrease of 1.6 % from 2023.
Since 2022, three waves of Extraordinarily Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) have struck U.S. turkey flocks, with the newest circumstances in enterprise meat turkey flocks reported on February twenty first in Dallas County, Missouri. Because the newest wave of the outbreak started in October 2023, merely over 3.3 million meat turkeys have been depopulated. Whereas the preliminary wave inside the spring of 2022 was the shortest, lasting solely 4 months, it resulted in primarily essentially the most turkey loss. Whereas Minnesota had a very powerful number of losses inside the first two waves, South Dakota has had primarily essentially the most depopulations so far within the newest wave.
Turkey Imports Adjusted Down; Exports Adjusted Up Barely
Turkey imports totaled 2.2 million kilos in January, with the majority (1.3 million kilos) coming from Canada. In January of 2023, imports totaled 6.3 million kilos, with a majority (4.7 million kilos) coming from Chile. Of the two import companions, Chile accounted for nearly all the elevated shipments in 2022 and early 2023. Reflecting lowered shipments from Chile, the 2024 import projection is adjusted proper all the way down to 51 million kilos. This is likely to be up from the 2023 complete, nevertheless nonetheless 34 million kilos shy of the 2022 import complete.
Turkey exports totaled 36.7 million kilos in January, up 10 million kilos from January 2023. Shipments to Mexico elevated by 7.5 million kilos from closing January to 25.9 million kilos, or 70.7 % of January shipments. Based totally on newest data, the 2024 export projection was revised up by 5 million kilos inside the first quarter for a whole of 520 million kilos. This may signify 9.7 % of projected 2024 manufacturing.
Turkey Prices Adjusted Up in First-Quarter 2024
Weekly widespread wholesale prices for frozen complete hen turkeys inside the first 9 weeks of 2024 ranged from a low of 82 cents per pound inside the week ending January twelfth to a extreme of 105 cents per pound inside the week ending February 2nd. Since that week, weekly averages have not fallen beneath 95 cents per pound. Prices averaged 96 cents per pound for the month of February and averaged 103 cents per pound inside the week ending March 1st. After declining counter-seasonally for a lot of of ultimate yr, wholesale complete hen prices have begun to exhibit a further seasonally typical climb. Based totally on newest data, the projected first-quarter widespread is adjusted as a lot as 97 cents per pound. With the second- by means of fourth-quarter projections unchanged at 105, 115, and 116 cents per pound, the annual widespread is projected at 108 cents per pound, down 32 cents from the 2023 widespread.
