Key Insights for the Poultry Enterprise
The USDA’s January 2025 Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook sheds mild on key tendencies shaping the broiler, egg, and turkey sectors. From manufacturing declines to export challenges and shifting price projections, the report captures the complexities going by means of the commerce as a result of it strikes into 2025. Beneath is a whole breakdown of the highlights.
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Broiler Manufacturing: Navigating HPAI Impacts and Lowered Output
Broiler manufacturing in November 2024 reached 3.65 billion kilos, marking a sharp 16.5% decline from October and a 4.4% decrease year-over-year. Key drivers included:
- Lowered Slaughter Days: November had two fewer slaughter days compared with October, significantly impacting basic manufacturing volumes.
- Slight Weight Reductions: Frequent reside weights fell from 6.7 kilos in October to 6.6 kilos in November.
HPAI Challenges:
Extraordinarily Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) significantly disrupted manufacturing on the end of 2024, with over 18 million birds affected in December alone. Of these, roughly 2.2 million have been part of the broiler manufacturing chain.
Revised Forecasts for 2025:
- First-quarter broiler manufacturing is projected at 11.7 billion kilos, down from earlier estimates, as a result of the commerce grapples with continued losses from HPAI and a cautious start to the yr.
Egg Manufacturing: Declines Persist Amid Tight Gives
Egg manufacturing observed notable declines in late 2024 on account of HPAI and reduce layer inventories:
- November 2024 Manufacturing: Totaled 639.9 million dozen, a 3.9% drop year-over-year.
- Layer Inventory: The everyday desk egg layer inventory in November was 311.3 million birds, down 3.1% from 2023 and virtually 17 million beneath the 5-year frequent.
HPAI had a substantial affect, with 38.4 million desk egg layers affected all by means of 2024. December alone observed losses of 13.6 million birds, a very powerful single-month affect of the yr.
2025 Projections:
No matter a modest restoration, 2025 egg manufacturing is forecast at 7.82 billion dozen, up 1.2% from 2024 nonetheless nonetheless 3.9% beneath pre-HPAI ranges in 2021.
Pricing Tendencies:
- December 2024 wholesale egg prices averaged 491.95 cents per dozen, reflecting tight gives.
- The 2025 annual price is projected at 294 cents per dozen, reflecting common demand and constrained present circumstances.
Turkey Manufacturing and Exports: Continued Pressures in 2025
Turkey manufacturing confronted essential challenges in 2024, primarily on account of HPAI:
- November Manufacturing: Reached 394 million kilos, down 12.3% year-over-year.
- Annual Totals: Full 2024 turkey manufacturing is estimated at 5.12 billion kilos, a 6.2% drop from 2023.
HPAI Impacts:
December 2024 observed the shortage of 1.48 million turkeys, bringing the annual entire to 3.63 million birds. That’s the second-highest loss given that current HPAI outbreak began in 2022.
2025 Forecasts:
- First-quarter turkey manufacturing is revised proper right down to 1.23 billion kilos, with second-quarter estimates at 1.26 billion kilos.
- Annual manufacturing is projected at 5.1 billion kilos, barely beneath 2024 ranges.
Turkey Exports:
- November exports totaled 42.1 million kilos, down 7 million kilos from November 2023.
- Mexico stays the primary market, accounting for 75.3% of U.S. turkey exports in 2024.
Broiler Exports: A Shiny Spot Amidst Challenges
Broiler exports continued to point vitality, with November 2024 shipments totaling 602.7 million kilos, up 5.7% year-over-year.
- Prime Areas:
- Mexico obtained 22% of exports, sustaining its place as a very powerful market.
- Taiwan accounted for 9% of entire shipments in November.
2025 Outlook:
Whereas exports are projected at 6.735 billion kilos, this represents a slight decrease on account of diminished manufacturing forecasts and tighter gives.
Pricing Tendencies All through Poultry Merchandise
The USDA report well-known rising price projections for broilers, eggs, and turkeys in 2025:
- Broilers: Quarterly price forecasts for 2025 are adjusted upward to 132 and 134 cents per pound for Q1 and Q2, respectively, on account of present constraints and HPAI impacts.
- Eggs: December prices surged to 491.95 cents per dozen, with 2025 prices projected at 294 cents per dozen.
- Turkeys: The everyday wholesale price for frozen whole turkeys is forecast at 99 cents per pound for 2025, reflecting common nonetheless subdued pricing tendencies.
Conclusion: A Difficult Freeway Ahead for Poultry Producers
The USDA’s January 2025 outlook underscores the challenges and alternate options going by means of the poultry sector. HPAI stays a serious disruptor, impacting manufacturing all through broilers, eggs, and turkeys. No matter these hurdles, export demand, regular pricing, and the commerce’s resilience current a strong foundation for restoration inside the yr ahead.